New Population Estimates

The Census Bureau released the first annual population estimates for cities since the 2010 Census on Thursday June 28.  Each year, they produce population estimates for cities, counties and county subdivisions, the states and the nation.  The Census uses administrative data from a number of sources, including vital statistics for births and deaths and IRS data for migration, to create the estimates.

Here are the five cities with more than 1,000 residents that had the fastest growth rate since April 1, 2010:

City	July 1, 2011 est.	April 1, 2010	Change	Percent change
Ogden	2,150	2,087	63	3.01%
Junction City	24,015	23,353	662	2.83%
Grandview Plaza	1,603	1,560	43	2.75%
Manhattan	53,678	52,281	1,397	2.67%
Dodge City	27,921	27,340	581	2.13%

The five cities with the largest total increase:

City	July 1, 2011 est.	April 1, 2010	Change	Percent change
Overland Park	176,185	173,372	2,813	1.62%
Wichita	384,445	382,368	2,077	0.54%
Olathe	127,907	125,872	2,035	1.62%
Manhattan	53,678	52,281	1,397	2.67%
Lawrence	88,727	87,643	1,084	1.24%

The five counties with the largest total increase:

County	July 1, 2011 est.	April 1, 2010	Change	Percent change
Johnson	552,991	544,179	8,812	1.62%
Sedgwick	501,076	498,365	2,711	0.54%
Riley	72,997	71,115	1,882	2.65%
Douglas	112,211	110,826	1,385	1.25%
Shawnee	178,941	177,934	1,007	0.57%

For each year’s estimates, the entire time series of estimates beginning April 1, 2010 is revised and updated.  Each revision is called a “vintage,” making these data vintage 2011 or V2011.  Because of the annual revision and updating, you cannot compare estimates from one vintage to another.

To dig more deeply into the data, go to:

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/index.html

If, as you read this, you wonder “what estimation method do they use, anyway?”  You can read all you want about the estimates methodology at:

http://www.census.gov/popest/methodology/index.html

The Secretary of State’s office certifies each year’s estimates for use by various State agencies and programs.  After certification, the official yearly estimates can be found at:

http://budget.ks.gov/ecodemo.htm

**Please note that these certified estimates are from that year’s vintage.  In other words, they will soon publish V2011, in a year V2012, etc.  As mentioned above, you cannot compare vintage to vintage, so you should not compare the V2012 estimate to V2011.

Article contact: Peter Haxton
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